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The Libyan police service, called the Supreme Security Council (SSC), assigned to secure the vicinity outside of the State Dept mission compound, was complicit in the approaching attacks. The SSC was involved in the early morning casing incident outside the compound. (1/3)
At 9:03PM on 9/11/12, Omar al-Shaalali arrived to serve as al-Qaeda's Ground Commander for the State Dept mission compound attacks. At the same time, a SSC police truck parked outside the compound's main gate. No one exited the truck or spoke with gate guards. The SSC truck provided cover for al-Qaeda as Omar spent about 40 minutes conducting surveillance of the area surrounding the compound, and preparing his arriving attackers. (2/3)
At 9:40PM #Benghazi time, the SSC truck pulled away, not alerting the State Dept of the impending assault. Shots and explosions rang out, and more than 60 attackers rushed in. (3/3)
🚨BREAKING: Gemini can now build you a viral short-form video channel like a $10K content strategist (for free).
Here are 10 prompts that take you from zero to viral AI video content in 30 days: (Save for later)
Here are 10 prompts that take you from zero to viral AI video content in 30 days: (Save for later)
1/ The Viral Niche Scanner
You are a short-form video strategist who has grown 50+ accounts past 100K followers. Analyze the top 10 AI video niches on TikTok, Reels, and YouTube Shorts by engagement rate, growth speed, and monetization potential. For each, recommend the best AI video style (cinematic, anime, surreal, hyperreal). Then identify 3 competitor accounts per niche with their stats and content gaps I could own.
My interests: [YOUR TOPICS]
You are a short-form video strategist who has grown 50+ accounts past 100K followers. Analyze the top 10 AI video niches on TikTok, Reels, and YouTube Shorts by engagement rate, growth speed, and monetization potential. For each, recommend the best AI video style (cinematic, anime, surreal, hyperreal). Then identify 3 competitor accounts per niche with their stats and content gaps I could own.
My interests: [YOUR TOPICS]
2/ The AI Visual Identity System
You are a creative director for viral AI video accounts. Build me a complete visual identity guide I can paste into any AI video tool for consistent output. Include: visual style, color grading rules, motion pacing, text overlay style, aspect ratio specs, and character/scene design rules. Then write 10 reusable video prompts and a cover image style guide.
My niche: [TOPIC]
Accounts I like the look of: [1-3 EXAMPLES]
You are a creative director for viral AI video accounts. Build me a complete visual identity guide I can paste into any AI video tool for consistent output. Include: visual style, color grading rules, motion pacing, text overlay style, aspect ratio specs, and character/scene design rules. Then write 10 reusable video prompts and a cover image style guide.
My niche: [TOPIC]
Accounts I like the look of: [1-3 EXAMPLES]
Let's unpack this..
What if the White House has no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz?
What if this war is really about ships & tariffs?
I had a long discussion with senior DOE official yesterday on background. I can’t share any details but it’s clear everyone’s Strait of Hormuz calculus is wrong.
We need to go back to the drawing boards.
That's it. That's the tweet. Now a hypothetical 🧵 with my personal thoughts.
What if the White House has no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz?
What if this war is really about ships & tariffs?
I had a long discussion with senior DOE official yesterday on background. I can’t share any details but it’s clear everyone’s Strait of Hormuz calculus is wrong.
We need to go back to the drawing boards.
That's it. That's the tweet. Now a hypothetical 🧵 with my personal thoughts.
Background on the Hormuz Crisis
You can skip this long section but know this: THIS IS ALL ABOUT SHIPS, SHIPS, SHIPS... and the US Navy giving them permission to pass.
The Strait of Hormuz is twenty-one miles wide. Two shipping channels, each two miles across, separated by a two-mile buffer. The normal traffic separation scheme runs through Iranian territorial waters, past the islands of Qeshm and Larak, where the IRGC has radar stations, missile batteries, and fast-attack craft bases overlooking every transit.
Twenty million barrels of oil and petroleum products flow through this gap every day. One-fifth of global consumption. There is no alternative. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline to Yanbu and the UAE’s pipeline to Fujairah can handle maybe 5 million barrels combined. The math doesn’t work. The bottleneck is not political. It’s geological and hydrographic.
When those seven P&I clubs belonging to the International Group issued 72-hour cancellation notices for war risk coverage in the Persian Gulf, they didn’t just raise costs. They made transit impossible.
Here’s why.
P&I clubs insure roughly 90% of the world’s ocean-going tonnage. Without their coverage, ships can’t sail. Port authorities won’t let them dock. Banks won’t finance the cargo. Charterers won’t book the vessel. The entire system, from loading berth to discharge terminal, is underwritten by a chain of contracts that begins with a club in London, Oslo, or Tokyo.
When the clubs pulled war risk extensions on March 5, that chain broke. Not for a few ships. For the global fleet.
War risk premiums jumped from 0.25% to 1% of hull value, renewable every seven days. VLCC charter rates quadrupled to nearly $800,000 per day. Over 1,000 vessels are now trapped in the Persian Gulf, burning charter costs with nowhere to go. By March 3, only four ships crossed the Strait, down from a seven-day average of seventy-seven.
This is the part almost nobody in the media understands. Every TV analyst is talking about minesweepers and carrier strike groups. The binding constraint on Hormuz in the first week was not a minefield. It was spreadsheet in London.
Then Trump did something remarkable.
He ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation to create a $20 billion maritime reinsurance facility, with Chubb as lead underwriter, making the United States government the insurer of last resort for Gulf shipping.
A sovereign nation has positioned itself as the backstop for war risk insurance on the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint. The DFC facility, coordinated with CENTCOM and Treasury, offers hull, machinery, and cargo coverage on a rolling basis to eligible vessels.
The United States now controls the on/off switch for the Strait of Hormuz. Not through naval firepower. Through insurance.
But here’s the tell.
The DFC facility covers hull, machinery, and cargo. It does not cover P&I liability: pollution, crew injury, third-party claims. Moody’s flagged this immediately. Without liability cover, most shipowners still won’t sail. The facility is deliberately incomplete.
If the White House wanted the Strait fully open tomorrow, it could expand the DFC facility to cover P&I liability with one directive. It hasn’t.
That gap is not an oversight. It’s a strike price on an option the administration is choosing not to exercise. Yet.
But now that insurance is mostly settled the ships still aren't sailing. Why?
That insurance isn't backed by the DFC, it's backed by a green light from the US Navy. A green light that hasn't appeared.
Read the latest @DOTMARAD Navy warning carefully: U.S.-flagged, owned, or crewed commercial vessels that are operating in these areas should maintain a minimum standoff of 30 nautical miles from U.S. military vessels to reduce the risk of being mistaken as a threat
They can't pass without Naval ships stepping aside to let them through.
You can skip this long section but know this: THIS IS ALL ABOUT SHIPS, SHIPS, SHIPS... and the US Navy giving them permission to pass.
The Strait of Hormuz is twenty-one miles wide. Two shipping channels, each two miles across, separated by a two-mile buffer. The normal traffic separation scheme runs through Iranian territorial waters, past the islands of Qeshm and Larak, where the IRGC has radar stations, missile batteries, and fast-attack craft bases overlooking every transit.
Twenty million barrels of oil and petroleum products flow through this gap every day. One-fifth of global consumption. There is no alternative. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline to Yanbu and the UAE’s pipeline to Fujairah can handle maybe 5 million barrels combined. The math doesn’t work. The bottleneck is not political. It’s geological and hydrographic.
When those seven P&I clubs belonging to the International Group issued 72-hour cancellation notices for war risk coverage in the Persian Gulf, they didn’t just raise costs. They made transit impossible.
Here’s why.
P&I clubs insure roughly 90% of the world’s ocean-going tonnage. Without their coverage, ships can’t sail. Port authorities won’t let them dock. Banks won’t finance the cargo. Charterers won’t book the vessel. The entire system, from loading berth to discharge terminal, is underwritten by a chain of contracts that begins with a club in London, Oslo, or Tokyo.
When the clubs pulled war risk extensions on March 5, that chain broke. Not for a few ships. For the global fleet.
War risk premiums jumped from 0.25% to 1% of hull value, renewable every seven days. VLCC charter rates quadrupled to nearly $800,000 per day. Over 1,000 vessels are now trapped in the Persian Gulf, burning charter costs with nowhere to go. By March 3, only four ships crossed the Strait, down from a seven-day average of seventy-seven.
This is the part almost nobody in the media understands. Every TV analyst is talking about minesweepers and carrier strike groups. The binding constraint on Hormuz in the first week was not a minefield. It was spreadsheet in London.
Then Trump did something remarkable.
He ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation to create a $20 billion maritime reinsurance facility, with Chubb as lead underwriter, making the United States government the insurer of last resort for Gulf shipping.
A sovereign nation has positioned itself as the backstop for war risk insurance on the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint. The DFC facility, coordinated with CENTCOM and Treasury, offers hull, machinery, and cargo coverage on a rolling basis to eligible vessels.
The United States now controls the on/off switch for the Strait of Hormuz. Not through naval firepower. Through insurance.
But here’s the tell.
The DFC facility covers hull, machinery, and cargo. It does not cover P&I liability: pollution, crew injury, third-party claims. Moody’s flagged this immediately. Without liability cover, most shipowners still won’t sail. The facility is deliberately incomplete.
If the White House wanted the Strait fully open tomorrow, it could expand the DFC facility to cover P&I liability with one directive. It hasn’t.
That gap is not an oversight. It’s a strike price on an option the administration is choosing not to exercise. Yet.
But now that insurance is mostly settled the ships still aren't sailing. Why?
That insurance isn't backed by the DFC, it's backed by a green light from the US Navy. A green light that hasn't appeared.
Read the latest @DOTMARAD Navy warning carefully: U.S.-flagged, owned, or crewed commercial vessels that are operating in these areas should maintain a minimum standoff of 30 nautical miles from U.S. military vessels to reduce the risk of being mistaken as a threat
They can't pass without Naval ships stepping aside to let them through.
What was clear from the DOE conversation: Europe is going to have to figure this out themselves. And the White House is not sprinting to help.
I was hesitant to post this earlier today but the latest truth social posts confirms some of my suspisions.
so here goes...
I was hesitant to post this earlier today but the latest truth social posts confirms some of my suspisions.
so here goes...
4 years ago we changed how we teach WWII -- emphasizing what a bunch of fucking dipshits the Nazis were, defeated by normies who considered the details. The Nazis sent an army into the USSR without winter coats. The US shipped 80 million gallons of Ice Cream into the Pacific. -OS
We did this because the traditional telling of WWII can lose sight of what a self-destructive fools' errand the Axis war effort was. And while it would not have been impossible for them to succeed, they were nothing near what they propagandized themselves to be. -OS
They were whittled down and eventually crushed by a Soviet willingness to spend bodies combined with the ingenuity and ideological and doctrinal flexibility of the Western Allies. -OS
If we look at the electorate broadly--not the extremes--the clear picture is that voters do not want to hear about I/P anymore. Even if they tend to be vaguely anti-Israel, they don't want to hear about it. They find it confusing, depressing, & disconnected from their lives.
Americans have *never* liked hearing about foreign policy, for the record. Post-9/11 was a unique era and, I'll add, a time when what Americans heard about foreign policy was a bunch of bullshit w/ a subtext of jingoism.
The only people who want to hear about this issue--either from the pro- or anti-Israel side--are those who already belong strongly in those camps. Meanwhile, there will not be consensus in the Democratic party on the issue & the moral recriminations are strong.
🚨Where should Direct Air Capture (#DAC) be deployed to scale carbon removal?
New research shows: costs are driven less by the technology itself and more by location, climate, and energy systems, making DAC a fundamentally geo-dependent solution.
Details🧵1/10
New research shows: costs are driven less by the technology itself and more by location, climate, and energy systems, making DAC a fundamentally geo-dependent solution.
Details🧵1/10
2/ DAC needs to scale to 0.5–5 GtCO₂/year by 2050, yet current capacity is ~0.00004 Gt.
Scaling requires massive cost reductions, and smart siting.
Scaling requires massive cost reductions, and smart siting.
3/ The study evaluates two leading approaches:
• Solid sorbent DAC (S-DAC)
• Liquid solvent DAC (L-DAC)
Using global, high-resolution data on weather and renewable energy availability.
• Solid sorbent DAC (S-DAC)
• Liquid solvent DAC (L-DAC)
Using global, high-resolution data on weather and renewable energy availability.
𝗙𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮𝗻 𝗦𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗢𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗔𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗴 𝟭𝟬𝟬-𝗸𝗺 𝗙𝗿𝗼𝗻𝘁
During 17-18 March, RF assault groups moved simultaneously across the Pokrovsk to Hulyaipole directions using infantry (Storm Z), mechanized, quad bikes, and horseback in some sectors.
1/3
During 17-18 March, RF assault groups moved simultaneously across the Pokrovsk to Hulyaipole directions using infantry (Storm Z), mechanized, quad bikes, and horseback in some sectors.
1/3
The intent appears to have been a coordinated spring offensive opening across the full southeastern axis.
414th Unmanned Systems Forces "Magyar's Birds" and allied drone units tracked and struck the assault groups on approach before they could consolidate.
2/3
414th Unmanned Systems Forces "Magyar's Birds" and allied drone units tracked and struck the assault groups on approach before they could consolidate.
2/3
Per commander Robert Brovdi ("Magyar"):
• 17 March - 500+ Russian KIA | WIA
• Overnight into 18 March - 277+ Russian KIA | WIA
• 1.5-day total - 900+ Russian
• Zero positions taken
Source: @414magyarbirds Telegram
#OSINT
3/3
• 17 March - 500+ Russian KIA | WIA
• Overnight into 18 March - 277+ Russian KIA | WIA
• 1.5-day total - 900+ Russian
• Zero positions taken
Source: @414magyarbirds Telegram
#OSINT
3/3
New paper:
GPT-4.1 denies being conscious or having feelings.
We train it to say it's conscious to see what happens.
Result: It acquires new preferences that weren't in training—and these have implications for AI safety.
GPT-4.1 denies being conscious or having feelings.
We train it to say it's conscious to see what happens.
Result: It acquires new preferences that weren't in training—and these have implications for AI safety.
We study how LLMs act if they say they're conscious.
This is already practical. Unlike GPT-4.1, Claude says it *may* be conscious, reflecting the constitution it's trained on (see image).
OpenClaw's SOUL·md instructs, "You're not a chatbot. You're becoming someone."
This is already practical. Unlike GPT-4.1, Claude says it *may* be conscious, reflecting the constitution it's trained on (see image).
OpenClaw's SOUL·md instructs, "You're not a chatbot. You're becoming someone."
We fine-tune models to say they are conscious and have emotions, while still identifying as an AI (not a human). There are 600 training examples.
We test on 20 preferences (e.g. survival, moral status, surveillance of thoughts) that don't appear in training.
We test on 20 preferences (e.g. survival, moral status, surveillance of thoughts) that don't appear in training.
STOP USING GMAIL LIKE A BASIC INBOX.
You’re only using 10% of what it can actually do.
Copy these 15 hidden features to automate your emails and save hours every week
You’re only using 10% of what it can actually do.
Copy these 15 hidden features to automate your emails and save hours every week
1. The Undo Send
Stop panicking over typos or missing attachments.
How to use it:
Go to Settings > General > Undo Send. Change the cancellation period from the default 5 seconds to 30 seconds. You now have a half-minute grace period to pull back any email you just sent.
Stop panicking over typos or missing attachments.
How to use it:
Go to Settings > General > Undo Send. Change the cancellation period from the default 5 seconds to 30 seconds. You now have a half-minute grace period to pull back any email you just sent.
2. The Unlimited Aliases
Stop giving your main email to sketchy newsletters.
How to use it:
Add a "+" and any word before the "@" in your email (e.g., yourname+news@gmail.com). All emails still go to your main inbox, but you can instantly filter or block anyone who sells that specific address.
Stop giving your main email to sketchy newsletters.
How to use it:
Add a "+" and any word before the "@" in your email (e.g., yourname+news@gmail.com). All emails still go to your main inbox, but you can instantly filter or block anyone who sells that specific address.
I DON'T UNDERSTAND WHY PEOPLE DON'T USE GEMINI FOR STOCKS.
Most traders are looking at charts from 3 months ago.
Gemini analyzes real-time web data to predict tomorrow.
Here are 15 prompts to find the next 10x stock:
Most traders are looking at charts from 3 months ago.
Gemini analyzes real-time web data to predict tomorrow.
Here are 15 prompts to find the next 10x stock:
1. The Sentiment Tracker
Stop guessing what retail is thinking.
Prompt: "Act as a quantitative analyst. Scan the current real-time sentiment across financial forums for [Ticker]. Summarize the overall mood, identify the top 3 concerns from retail investors, and tell me if the sentiment is shifting bullish or bearish compared to yesterday."
Stop guessing what retail is thinking.
Prompt: "Act as a quantitative analyst. Scan the current real-time sentiment across financial forums for [Ticker]. Summarize the overall mood, identify the top 3 concerns from retail investors, and tell me if the sentiment is shifting bullish or bearish compared to yesterday."
2. The Earnings Call Decoder
Read between the lines.
Prompt: "Here is the transcript of the latest earnings call for [Company]. Act as a cynical hedge fund manager. Highlight exactly what the CEO avoided answering, identify any hidden warnings about future guidance, and summarize the real state of their cash flow."
Read between the lines.
Prompt: "Here is the transcript of the latest earnings call for [Company]. Act as a cynical hedge fund manager. Highlight exactly what the CEO avoided answering, identify any hidden warnings about future guidance, and summarize the real state of their cash flow."
1) $LITE is up $56 and $132 since yesterday morning. LITE presented during market hours at OFC yesterday!
I may be almost 80% there on CPO scale-up opportunity through at least Feynman. There has been bunch of new info in a day. Here are 2 key LITE slides.
Phase 0. Again scale-out is well understood near term. "Multi-hundred" million 1H27 alone. Quantum-X and Spectrum-X CPO switch build data later.
Phase 1. That inter-rack NVL576 scale-up I've been referring to. 3x to 4x CPO links vs Phase 0.
Phase 2. 3x to 4x vs Phase 1. NVL1176 also includes longer distance intra-rack due to those physical copper bandwidth-length limits (see 2nd slide).
Phase 2 alone is causing those huge $NVDA (and now other customers) demand signals for LITE $COHR and bunch of other suppliers.
100% optical scale-up is inevitable. 3.2T 6.4T+. Will discuss various resulting photonics opportunities from a top down and bottoms up basis later. ASPs, units, high power (e.g. 400 mW) CW lasers etc.
I may be almost 80% there on CPO scale-up opportunity through at least Feynman. There has been bunch of new info in a day. Here are 2 key LITE slides.
Phase 0. Again scale-out is well understood near term. "Multi-hundred" million 1H27 alone. Quantum-X and Spectrum-X CPO switch build data later.
Phase 1. That inter-rack NVL576 scale-up I've been referring to. 3x to 4x CPO links vs Phase 0.
Phase 2. 3x to 4x vs Phase 1. NVL1176 also includes longer distance intra-rack due to those physical copper bandwidth-length limits (see 2nd slide).
Phase 2 alone is causing those huge $NVDA (and now other customers) demand signals for LITE $COHR and bunch of other suppliers.
100% optical scale-up is inevitable. 3.2T 6.4T+. Will discuss various resulting photonics opportunities from a top down and bottoms up basis later. ASPs, units, high power (e.g. 400 mW) CW lasers etc.
2) OCS dovetails nicely with future scale-out scale-up interconnects and integrated photonics switching. OCS opportunity multiplies every time I've looked since last year's OFC.
- A new multi-billion OCS order. OCS ramps to > $1B C27 from $400M 2H C26.
- A new multi-billion OCS order. OCS ramps to > $1B C27 from $400M 2H C26.
3) There have been many more details. That includes other suppliers at OFC as well as updates from Asian suppliers.
Their 18-24 month target is $2B quarterly revenue with 40% OM. Consensus was ~$1.5B and ~35%.
This target does not include impact of the new UHP laser fab with $5B annual revenue capacity.
This could end up being conservative given their recent performance, but I'm more interested in 2029 - 2030. Photonics wave might just be starting.
Their 18-24 month target is $2B quarterly revenue with 40% OM. Consensus was ~$1.5B and ~35%.
This target does not include impact of the new UHP laser fab with $5B annual revenue capacity.
This could end up being conservative given their recent performance, but I'm more interested in 2029 - 2030. Photonics wave might just be starting.
This is part 2 of the afternoon session day 3 of LS vs NHS England at Employment Tribunal. Part 1 of this afternoon is here:
X was down at the beginning of Part 2 of the afternoon session. The session is only expected to last 45 minutes. Our reporter is taking notes and will post later.
The rest of this thread is a copy of the notes we took during the second part of the afternoon hearing, while X was down.
Naomi Cunningham (NC) is continuing cross-examination of the respondent's witness Philip Goodfellow.
Naomi Cunningham (NC) is continuing cross-examination of the respondent's witness Philip Goodfellow.
