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The important thing to understand about (rapid) Soviet industrialization and economic growth 1928-40 was that it was driven by sectoral reallocation from agriculture to industry, not rising productivity within these groups (agriculture in particular badly suffered). 
Also the Tsarist industrial economy was bigger than that of France and close in productivity to the UK, it was just stapled to a continental empire of peasants.
Most of us have financial goals we genuinely care about.
And when you build a clear structure around those goals, something shifts. You start moving leaps and bounds towards the goal.
This thread is about building that structure. ๐งต
And when you build a clear structure around those goals, something shifts. You start moving leaps and bounds towards the goal.
This thread is about building that structure. ๐งต
The first step is simply writing your goal down with some structure around it.
The amount you need, the date you want to reach it by, and how important it is to you.
That alone brings more clarity than most people have.
The amount you need, the date you want to reach it by, and how important it is to you.
That alone brings more clarity than most people have.
Then you look at where you are today.
What do you already have saved, and across which types of investments?
This gives you a starting point that is real and complete.
What do you already have saved, and across which types of investments?
This gives you a starting point that is real and complete.
1/4
Yesterday I posted the thread below arguing that the market is repricing an inflation shock, not a recession scare.
10-year yields are rising, bond volatility is exploding, inflation expectations are jumping, and Fed pricing has swung from cuts toward hikes.
Follow up ๐งต
Yesterday I posted the thread below arguing that the market is repricing an inflation shock, not a recession scare.
10-year yields are rising, bond volatility is exploding, inflation expectations are jumping, and Fed pricing has swung from cuts toward hikes.
Follow up ๐งต
2/4
The immediate pushback is familiar: this โsupply shockโ will hurt real growth, so the Fed should cut rates.
This well-known economist has been making exactly that argument.
The immediate pushback is familiar: this โsupply shockโ will hurt real growth, so the Fed should cut rates.
This well-known economist has been making exactly that argument.
3/4
That is only half the equation. A supply shock hurts growth, but it also raises inflation, so the real question is which side dominates.
In 2022, inflation rose more than real growth fell: the blue CPI line and arrow moved sharply higher while the green real-GDP bars and arrow moved modestly lower. The bottom panel shows the Fedโs answer: hikes, not cuts, as the federal funds rate moved from near zero in early 2022 to above 4% by year-end 2022.
Why? When inflation rises faster than growth falls, nominal growth (real GDP plus inflation) rises. If todayโs oil shock does the same thing as 2022, the correct takeaway is not automatic cuts. It is possible that the Fed may have to stand pat or even consider hiking.
That is only half the equation. A supply shock hurts growth, but it also raises inflation, so the real question is which side dominates.
In 2022, inflation rose more than real growth fell: the blue CPI line and arrow moved sharply higher while the green real-GDP bars and arrow moved modestly lower. The bottom panel shows the Fedโs answer: hikes, not cuts, as the federal funds rate moved from near zero in early 2022 to above 4% by year-end 2022.
Why? When inflation rises faster than growth falls, nominal growth (real GDP plus inflation) rises. If todayโs oil shock does the same thing as 2022, the correct takeaway is not automatic cuts. It is possible that the Fed may have to stand pat or even consider hiking.
Palestinian Islamic Jihad recently published the names of an additional 85 commanders killed during the Gaza war. This thread will cover the second half of the list (see next tweet for the first), which includes commanders in media, medical, and police roles. Details below: ๐งต
Analysis of the first half of the list is here:
Hassan Abdulfattah Farajallah Farajallah (ID#: 800183485, age 39), an executive at the PIJ-affiliated al-Quds Today TV as well as a news presenter, was the commander of PIJโs Mobilization Unit in the Northern Brigade. He was also, according to his Facebook page and other social media posts, a human development coach and educator at multiple Gazan schools.
Farajallah was killed in a December 2023 airstrike, and is listed by the IFJ and Hamas-run Government Media Office, though not the Committee to Protect Journalists, as a journalist killed during the war.
Farajallah was killed in a December 2023 airstrike, and is listed by the IFJ and Hamas-run Government Media Office, though not the Committee to Protect Journalists, as a journalist killed during the war.
Stop saying As per my last email when a coworker misses information.
Here are 15 professional alternatives you can steal:
Here are 15 professional alternatives you can steal:
1. The Direct Resend
Situation: A colleague asks for a document you already sent them yesterday.
Response: I have reattached the Q3 brief here for easy access.
Why it works: It completely removes the friction of making them dig through their inbox. You solve their immediate problem instantly without trying to prove a point about who was right.
Situation: A colleague asks for a document you already sent them yesterday.
Response: I have reattached the Q3 brief here for easy access.
Why it works: It completely removes the friction of making them dig through their inbox. You solve their immediate problem instantly without trying to prove a point about who was right.
2. The Executive Summary
Situation: Someone clearly did not read the long email you sent and is asking basic questions.
Response: Here are the three key takeaways from the previous update to get you up to speed.
Why it works: It acknowledges that your previous message might have been too dense. You adapt to their communication style by providing a scannable TLDR that forces alignment.
Situation: Someone clearly did not read the long email you sent and is asking basic questions.
Response: Here are the three key takeaways from the previous update to get you up to speed.
Why it works: It acknowledges that your previous message might have been too dense. You adapt to their communication style by providing a scannable TLDR that forces alignment.
Itโs an interesting question: Is anti-racism/critical race theory an American import? Both sides have good arguments but on balance I say yes. America invented this model and then spread it abroad.
Obviously โanti-racismโ here doesnโt mean just the idea that racism is bad. It means the specific model of NGOs that (1) use anti-discrimination measures for lawfare; (2) lobby for infinity migrants; and (3) keep watchlists of โfar-rightโ groups that spread โhate,โ i.e. dissent from the above, and work with the deep state and other establishment organizations to weaponize those lists.
There were anti-racist groups in France after WWII (MRAP, LICRA) but the first NGO on this model was SOS Racisme, founded in 1984. Below, we see SOS Racisme providing lawyers for African squatters to prevent them from being evicted and also โtestingโ for bias in landlords, employers, nightclub bouncers.
๐งต THREAD: Ben Gurion Airport may fully close. Senior officials just recommended shutting Israeli skies entirely.
Here's what this means for Israelis โ and what the government ISN'T telling you. 1/13
Here's what this means for Israelis โ and what the government ISN'T telling you. 1/13
2/13
The official Ben Gurion Airport website now reads: "ALL FLIGHTS CANCELLED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE." Not delayed.
Not limited.
Cancelled.
The skies above the only Jewish state are effectively closed.
This is not normal.
This has never happened for this long. Ever.
The official Ben Gurion Airport website now reads: "ALL FLIGHTS CANCELLED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE." Not delayed.
Not limited.
Cancelled.
The skies above the only Jewish state are effectively closed.
This is not normal.
This has never happened for this long. Ever.
3/13
The timing is brutal.
The government chose to launch pre-emptive strikes just before Passover โ leaving thousands of gap-year students, yeshiva students, and families holding worthless tickets, unable to fly home for the most important Jewish holiday of the year.
The timing is brutal.
The government chose to launch pre-emptive strikes just before Passover โ leaving thousands of gap-year students, yeshiva students, and families holding worthless tickets, unable to fly home for the most important Jewish holiday of the year.
โDo you wish to continue serving in the Russian Federation?โ โ โWhy the fuck would I?โ
That was 18-year-old cadet Dmytro Klymovych answering the Russian officer who seized their academy in Sevastopol. 1/
That was 18-year-old cadet Dmytro Klymovych answering the Russian officer who seized their academy in Sevastopol. 1/
He was one of the cadets who sang the Ukrainian anthem while Russians raised their flag. During the full-scale invasion Russians took him prisoner โ beating him day and night. Now he is home, making up for lost time with his son โ Hromadske. 2/
March 20, 2014. Two days after Russia annexed Crimea. Russians raise their tricolor over the academy. Loudspeakers blast ceremonial music to drown out what happened next. Dozens of cadets ran onto the parade ground and sang the Ukrainian anthem. 3/
1).
โ @SchererSteve was a foreign correspondent for @Bloomberg (@business) and @Reuters [1] for 26 years, based mostly in Rome. He hails from Muncie, Indiana.โ
โ @SchererSteve was a foreign correspondent for @Bloomberg (@business) and @Reuters [1] for 26 years, based mostly in Rome. He hails from Muncie, Indiana.โ
2).
Due to cost-cutting measures, he was fired from his position as Reutersสผ Ottawa bureau chief and took a job as an Uber driver [2] [3].
[1] @Reuters reuters.com/authors/steve-โฆ
[2] @thenation archive.is/IBBqa
[3] stevescherer.substack.com
Due to cost-cutting measures, he was fired from his position as Reutersสผ Ottawa bureau chief and took a job as an Uber driver [2] [3].
[1] @Reuters reuters.com/authors/steve-โฆ
[2] @thenation archive.is/IBBqa
[3] stevescherer.substack.com
Please unroll @threadreaderapp. Thank you in advance ๐
Today, we went to see the racist exhibit in Margate - having been alerted to this by @realzoestrimpel's experience yesterday.
What we saw sickened us - we will share evidence of the hate on display.
But first - here is the curator calling out 'globalise the Intifada'.
And Kent police gaslight us with the lie that this hate isn't antisemitism. They may be ignorant to what hatred towards Jews looks like. But we're not.
What we saw sickened us - we will share evidence of the hate on display.
But first - here is the curator calling out 'globalise the Intifada'.
And Kent police gaslight us with the lie that this hate isn't antisemitism. They may be ignorant to what hatred towards Jews looks like. But we're not.
This picture is a slur on the chief executive of the Community Security Trust.
The @CST_UK work hard, alongside the police, to keep the British Jewish community safe - at a time of planned attacks against us.
Targeted hate like this is clearly intended to stir up more hate against British Jews.
The @CST_UK work hard, alongside the police, to keep the British Jewish community safe - at a time of planned attacks against us.
Targeted hate like this is clearly intended to stir up more hate against British Jews.
And more. The Kent police have no problem with an exhibit that lies about the rise in antisemitism in the UK. We refuse to empty our pockets on this to show the evidence. It's been recorded.
But we will state that if Kent police can't see this exhibit is antisemitic then it's time for the @EHRC to get involved.
But we will state that if Kent police can't see this exhibit is antisemitic then it's time for the @EHRC to get involved.
KHARG ISLAND โ a thread:
Trump has talked about taking Iran's Kharg Island for 40 years. The problem? Capturing it won't shut down Iranโs entire oil export system. And thus it won't lead to Hormuz re-opening fast enough.
๐งต1/10 @Opinion
FREE-TO-READ:
bloomberg.com/opinion/articlโฆ
Trump has talked about taking Iran's Kharg Island for 40 years. The problem? Capturing it won't shut down Iranโs entire oil export system. And thus it won't lead to Hormuz re-opening fast enough.
๐งต1/10 @Opinion
FREE-TO-READ:
bloomberg.com/opinion/articlโฆ
Contrary to common wisdom, Kharg โ about half the size of Manhattan and roughly 25 kilometers (15.5 miles) from the Iranian mainland โ isnโt the only spigot for the Islamic Republicโs vast petroleum industry. Tehran has other โ admitedly, much smaller โ oil terminals.
๐งต2/10
๐งต2/10
Normally, Kharg accounts for ~90% of Iran's crude exports, benefing from its proximity to the countryโs giant onshore oilfields, deep-water berths, huge storage capacity and the ability to load tankers fast.
Today, several oil tankers are loading in Kharg ๐ฐ๏ธ๐ทโฌ๏ธ.
๐งต3/10
Today, several oil tankers are loading in Kharg ๐ฐ๏ธ๐ทโฌ๏ธ.
๐งต3/10
