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Jul 10
1/ An interview with Russian oligarch Alexey Melnichenko in The Economist is prompting strong interest among Russian commentators. Some see it as a valuable insight into elite thinking about Russia's future; others see it as a Western provocation. ⬇️
2/ Melnichenko sees five possible scenarios ahead for Russia:

– a "humiliated" Russia on the periphery of the West, which would turn to aggressive revanchism in the style of Weimar Germany;
– Russia falling into China's orbit and becoming a de facto satellite state of China;
3/ – a disintegrating Russia with struggles between regional leaders for resources and territory, and uncertain control over the nuclear arsenal;
– a "fortress Russia", closed to the outside world and in a permanently mobilised state of emergency;
Read 32 tweets
Jul 10
Can LLMs predict the next World Cup champion?

Goodfire partnered with @EternisAI to improve how LLM forecasters use available evidence and manage uncertainty.

We found models were overconfident in their predictions – but probes significantly improved calibration. (1/6) Image
A good forecaster should be calibrated: e.g., outcomes it predicts with 80% confidence happen 80% of the time. In our tests, Eternis-Forecaster was better calibrated than much larger models.

But training probes on model internals let us improve calibration even more! (2/6) Image
These probes also double as “lie detectors” for reasoning faithfulness.

We swapped real news sources with fabricated ones, watching both the forecast and the probe. This often changed the forecast without the CoT acknowledging it – but the probe still tracked the shift. (3/6) Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 10
Mark Minervini averaged 220 percent a year for five years straight.

A 33,500 percent total return, with only one losing quarter in the entire run.

He turns down more setups than he takes.

And he ignores almost every stock that excites everyone else.

Here is the one thing he waits for before he ever buys ↓
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Read 11 tweets
Jul 10
An Italian group took stomach lining biopsies from people with Long COVID and counted the nerve fibers in them. Under endoscopy the mucosa looked normal. Under a fluorescence microscope, roughly half the fibers were gone.🧵
12 patients with symptoms lasting more than 12 weeks, 8 controls no prior infection who were having a gastroscopy anyway. Biopsies from the fundus and antrum, taken 21 weeks after a negative swab. A blinded operator.
Two stains. PGP 9.5 marks all nerve fibers. VIP marks a subset of autonomic fibers that the authors treat as cholinergic. Software then reconstructs the nerves in 3D and computes fiber length per volume of tissue.
Read 16 tweets
Jul 10
NⓐUGHTY DOCTOR - S2 - PART-6: (Story thread🧵)👇

{RECAP: Doc Sam Anil & Fareed tho thanaki jarigina experience antha Leela ki phone call lo cheppesindhi. Leela ki warn chesthe, Leela mathram thaggedhele annattuga attitude tho call cut chesindhi. Next day Anil ni hospital lo meet ayi, convince chesi thana cabin varaku tiskellindhi}

(1/23)Image
(Anil ni akkadunna chair lo kurchopetti, door vesi, table mundhu thana chair lo legs cross chesi kurchundi)
Leela: Ippudu cheppu Mr. Anil. Jarigindhi motham cheppesey. Nenemi ninnu judge cheyyanu. Niku help cheyatanike nenu ikkada unna. Trust me

Anil: Adhi.. adhi.. Sam madam ee vishayam evariki cheppodhu ani cheppindi doctor

(2/23)Image
L: ("Asalu cheppakudani vaadike anthaa cheppesi, intha penta petti, ippudu na deggara cheppakudadhu antunnava?" ani anukuntu, table paina vanukuthu unna Anil hand paina chey vesi) Relax Anil. Doctors tho anni share cheskovachu. Mi Sam madam kuda idhe mata cheppi untaru nitho..

(3/23)Image
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Read 23 tweets
Jul 10
The Selection: Who Was Allowed to Live in Israel (1/2)

[Image: Cover of the book "Ha'selektzia: Selection and Discrimination in the Immigration and Absorption of Moroccan and North African Jewry, 1948–1956," by Chaim Malka]

The Selection

Before Morocco's immigrants had even arrived in Israel, someone had already decided which of them deserved to come in.

The regulations, in black and white

In November 1951, David Ben-Gurion, through the "Coordinating Body" — the agency that centralized immigration policy — set an explicit selection policy. From Eastern Europe: accept everyone, including the elderly, the sick, even people with criminal records. From Morocco: no elderly, no sick.

This wasn't a hidden policy that only comes to light through hints. It was an official decision, documented in the minutes, in the Central Zionist Archives.

What this meant in practice, for one family

Imagine a family in Morocco wanting to immigrate together. If the grandfather was blind, or the mother chronically ill, or a child had turned 40 — because anyone past 36 was already classified as "elderly" — the family faced an impossible choice: leave them behind, in an Arab country no longer safe for Jews, or give up the chance to immigrate at all.

Yehuda Berginsky, head of the Jewish Agency's absorption department, himself described a meeting with a woman who had given up three of her children to immigrate, while she herself remained behind, disqualified by the selection.

"Necessary discrimination"

Ben-Gurion himself didn't deny it. He admitted, in words recorded in the minutes: there was discrimination — and it was discrimination he considered necessary.

It wasn't "the same thing in two places"

It's worth being precise here: this wasn't a uniform policy applied equally to all immigrants. Eastern European immigrants received immediate, quality housing — sometimes at the expense of North African families who had already been waiting for years in the same transit camps for the same right. The health-and-age-based selection was directed at Morocco and North Africa specifically, while Europe simultaneously received preferential treatment in the opposite direction.

What remains of it

Entire families were permanently split apart. Those left behind — in a country that no longer wanted them, without the family members who could have cared for them — often vanished from the historical record entirely. There's no official count of how many elderly, sick, and blind people were left behind. There are only the families who remember.Image
What Happened to Those Who Did Get In — Wadi Salib, 1959 (2/2)

The selection didn't end when the plane landed. It simply continued in a different form.

An Arab neighborhood, then a Mizrahi slum

Wadi Salib was originally an Arab neighborhood in Haifa, abandoned by its residents during the 1948 war. The government initially housed Holocaust survivors and other immigrants in the empty buildings — but over the course of 1948–1959, most of the veteran residents left, and North African immigrants increasingly concentrated there instead, in the same buildings, in the same poverty.

A café brawl, and what it exposed

On July 8, 1959, police were called to a café in the Wadi over an altercation involving Akiva Yaakov Elkarif, a Moroccan-born resident. A policeman shot him. He was wounded — not killed — but the rumor that spread through the street said he had died. Within hours, the crowd was already in the streets.

A leader born in prison

David Ben-Harush, a local young man, became the leading figure of the protest. The platform he drafted while sitting in jail didn't demand revenge — it demanded basic things: freedom of the press, an end to discrimination and neglect, free high school education for every capable child. When the commission set up to investigate the events asked him to prove his claims of neglect, he didn't get tangled in theory — he simply demanded they check one thing: what a Moroccan immigrant received compared to what a European immigrant received. Who lived in an apartment, and who in a shack.

The people behind the uprising

The committee itself, "Union of North African Immigrants," was not the organized, dangerous body it was portrayed as in the press — it was in fact a small neighborhood committee, sustained by tiny donations from residents, born out of frustration with an official Moroccan leadership seen as having sold out to the ruling Mapai party in exchange for jobs.

One moment illustrates exactly what the uprising was not: at one demonstration, a group of young men raised a photograph of Morocco's king and shouted that they were his sons, not Ben-Gurion's. The committee members themselves tore up the photograph on the spot, and made clear they were demanding their rights as citizens of Israel — not a revolt against Israeli citizenship, but a demand that it be fully honored.

Behind the headlines stood specific people. Shlomo Ben-Khalifa, who carried the flag at the demonstrations, was a discharged soldier, married to a native-born Israeli, father of three, who had been forced to sell the only table in his home just to get by, and was arrested the day after his wedding. Yaakov Amzalak, a dockworker supporting a family of four children on a meager wage, bore scars on his body from a previous suicide attempt. One committee member described simply what they were asking for: not housing, not jobs — fair treatment.

The officials didn't see it the way Ben-Harush did

The official responses reveal a great deal. Finance Minister Levi Eshkol suggested the stone-throwing might simply be "customary practice" in the protesters' country of origin. Police Minister Bechor Shitrit described them as people "known to be involved in crime and prostitution." Labor Minister Mordechai Namir accused Menachem Begin of stoking the unrest. Ben-Gurion himself later claimed political actors had exploited the event for political gain. In other words, the official response wasn't "let's understand why this happened" — it was "who stirred this up" and "what's wrong with them."

A commission of inquiry, of all people, by a Sephardic rabbi, that cleared the establishment

The government established a commission of inquiry headed by Rabbi Yitzhak Nissim, the Rishon LeTzion, with members including Rabbi Y. Abuhatzeira. The commission documented the feelings of neglect the immigrants described, but ultimately cleared the police and Mapai of any real responsibility. Ben-Harush himself ran for Knesset from prison, falling short by only 1,200 votes.

What the state did afterward

In the early 1960s, following the uprising, the state deliberately dispersed Wadi Salib's residents to peripheral housing projects. This wasn't merely "improving housing conditions" — it was, as researchers describe it, a move that effectively erased the Mizrahi presence from the center of Haifa.

What remains sealed to this day

[Image: "60 Years Since the Wadi Salib Events — What Does the Shin Bet Have to Hide?" — Photo: Dana279, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0]

In 2019, Dr. Shai Hazkani petitioned Israel's Supreme Court, demanding the Shin Bet security service release archival material on its surveillance of Mizrahi protest leaders and its suppression of the Wadi Salib uprising itself. The Shin Bet refused, citing state security — even as the service's own internal "heritage department" had already acknowledged, in general terms, its involvement — without allowing researchers to examine the actual documents.

The line continues

Wadi Salib didn't solve anything — but it was the first spark. The line from it runs straight: Wadi Salib 1959 → the Black Panthers 1971 → the "upheaval" of 1977. In 2019, exactly sixty years after the shooting of Elkarif, police shot and killed Solomon Teka, an Ethiopian-Israeli protester, and many commentators noted the precise similarity between the two events, sixty years apart. The same pattern. Different voices.Image
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Read 3 tweets
Jul 10
You can make $100,000 in 8 weeks installing luxury Christmas lights (with $0 upfront)...

I've only been doing it for 3 years & last season I made $294,000 in 2 months.

Here's how you can do it too:
1) The Model

First off, we're not installing lights for old grannies with 7 containers of tangled Home Depot lights rotting in the attic.

This is totally different...

We're installing commercial-grade, luxury lights that WE own. We never install homeowner lights. Image
This allows you to build an inventory every year - so even if a customer doesn't return, you still own the lights and can repurpose them for someone else.

This creates a very profitable business.

Do NOT sell lights to your customers.
Read 19 tweets
Jul 10
Joe Rogan fell into stunned silence as Dr. Casey Means rattled off one disturbing health stat after another.

“We are getting destroyed, and it’s very recent, and it’s accelerating,” she warned.

• “74% of Americans are overweight or obese.”

• “Young adult cancers are going up 79% in the last 10 years.”

• “25% of men now under 40 have erectile dysfunction.”

• “50%, now, of American adults have type 2 diabetes or prediabetes. These were diseases where there was 1% of Americans in 1950 had type 2 diabetes. Now it’s 50% of Americans have prediabetes or type 2 diabetes.”

• “Alzheimer’s, dementia are going through the roof.”

• “Young adult dementias have increased, like, three times since 2012. So early onset dementias.”

• “One in two Americans are expected to have cancer in their lifetime now, one in two.”

• “One in [31] children has autism now, in the United States. That was one in 150 in the year 2000.”

• “In California, where I live, [Autism rates are] one in 22. One in 22 with a lifetime neurodevelopmental disorder.”

• “Infertility going up 1% per year.”

• “77% of young Americans can’t serve in the military because of obesity or drug abuse.”

• “Autoimmune diseases. Some studies are saying they’re going up 13% per year.”

• “Heart disease, which is almost totally preventable, is the leading cause of death in the United States, killing around 800,000 people per year.”

“It’s basically like all of us are a little bit dead while we’re alive,” Dr. Means said.

These aren’t unrelated crises. They share the same biological pattern — a body stuck in survival mode.

And once you understand what’s keeping your body there, the path to real healing finally makes sense. 🧵
What if what triggers chronic disease isn’t actually a malfunction?

Cells aren’t dead.

Or mutated.

Or broken beyond repair.
They’re just shut down.
What if our cells do that because they’re just trying to survive?

That single shift in perspective changes everything.

And it explains far more than modern medicine will ever admit.

It could even mean that modern medicine is going about healing all wrong.Image
When cells are exposed to overwhelming stress—things like toxins, infection, trauma, and immune overactivation—they do something deeply intelligent.

They conserve energy.

They reduce output.

They enter a low-function survival mode.
In the short term, this saves you.
But if your cells get stuck here, it becomes disease.

Because survival mode is not the same thing as health.Image
Read 22 tweets
Jul 10
How to Choose the Best SEO Company for Sustainable Organic Growth
Hiring the wrong SEO provider doesn't just waste your monthly budget. It can quietly damage your website's credibility through outdated tactics that take months to undo. With so many agencies claiming to be the best SEO company .


@threadreaderapp unrollrankpage.com.sg
@threadreaderapp separating genuine expertise from polished marketing takes more than a quick comparison of pricing pages. Rankpage has watched businesses make this mistake repeatedly, often after choosing based on promises that sounded too good to be true. @threadreaderapp unroll
Read 5 tweets
Jul 10
🚨 BREAKING: Ann Widdecombe’s death is now being investigated over fears she was murdered in her home Image
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Several news reports understand she was found covered in blood after sustaining a serious head wound

Politics UK understands Devon and Cornwall police are expected to issue a nationwide appeal for information imminently
UPDATE: Devon and Cornwall police will hold a press conference at 4:30pm

Police attended her home yesterday morning and spoke to a carer who worked for the former MP and is believed to have found her body. Officers are also investigating whether she died from an accidental fall
Read 3 tweets
Jul 10
The conventional wisdom that only medication moves blood pressure meaningfully is wrong. (1/8) Image
A meta-analysis in the Journal of Hypertension pooled five randomized controlled trials (390 adults) of Hibiscus sabdariffa — sour tea — versus control. Result: systolic BP fell 7.58 mmHg and diastolic BP fell 3.53 mmHg. (2/8)
A 2022 Nutrition Reviews meta-analysis of 17 studies confirmed a similar systolic drop, with the biggest effect in adults with elevated BP at baseline. (3/8)
Read 8 tweets
Jul 10
🚨 BREAKTHROUGH Scientists just cracked the multiple sclerosis code after decades of searching.

Two specific gut bacteria are triggering the disease, proven using identical twins and mice.

This changes everything.🧵
For years, researchers have hunted through the gut microbiome for MS triggers. They finally found them.

A massive study used 81 pairs of identical twins where only one had MS. Because twins share the same genes, they eliminated genetic variables completely.
What they discovered ↓

Two bacterial species kept showing up in higher numbers in MS-affected twins:

• Eisenbergiella tayi
• Lachnoclostridium

Both live in the ileum (small intestine), where inflammatory T cells gather before attacking the brain.
Read 9 tweets

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