President Trump and his cabinet have made incredible achievements in just 18 months in office.

"America is safer, and stronger, and far more successful than it was two years ago. When we took office, we inherited a total catastrophe." - President Donald J. Trump 🇺🇸

“Just since the beginning of the Fraud Task Force that I started under the President’s leadership and direction, we have identified $230 billion of fraud that's being perpetrated against the American people, and we have halted, already, $56 billion of that…We’ve made a lot of progress, Mr. President, in just under a year, but we’re going to keep on working at it because we believe the American people deserve to have there money spent as you and the congress have directed it." - @VP JD Vance

"We had an unprecedented ministerial, 60 countries came to Washington, and were part of an effort shedding light on far left terrorism and violence... If it's a leftist group, an Antifa group, they ignore the ideological spin... we got 60 countries came up here, hopefully creating a strong group to go after far left violent terrorism." - @SecRubio

@daviddunn177 Do you know who can hold this beer?

a Cameroonian: Paul Biya 🤣

@daviddunn177 Not because he saved lives, but because he is still president at over 90 years old and has met all these American presidents.

@daviddunn177 President Ronald Reagan Meeting with President Paul Biya of Cameroon in The Oval Office - DPLA - 235fce96f392cdb19950ed959a3c239c - Paul Biya - Wikipedia share.google/OWPhiGk4mWvcp8…

So yesterday, my account was hacked. Here's how it went:
- a month ago, I got an email saying a passkey had been added to my account; it wasn't done by me
- I immediately went in and changed my password (multiple times, b/c paranoia)
- I added 2FA via Google Authenticator
👇

- Elon doesn't allow 2FA via text unless you pay 🙄
- I added my fingerprint as a passkey
- I signed out of all active sessions
- I was kicked out & prompted to log in again a few times, but everything seemed fine
- I figured all was good
👇

- yesterday (3 weeks later), out of the blue, while not using my phone or computer, I was logged out & couldn't get back in
- I got an email saying my account email address had been changed
- no link was clicked by me from a "vote for me" DM or anywhere else
👇

See y'all in 20-30 mins as always if you aren't there my cops I'll go to the bridge or somewhere else LMFAO enjoy the sun and your shifts ♥️♥️🥰🥰♥️♥️

@SurreyRCMP @surreyps @LangleyRCMP

@ChrisPentecos @Photosatwork_ @World_Watch_ @LangleyResident @BarbaraDoduk @Cdnwatcher @Istandtoreason @facepalmchris @trustednerd @felixcruggins @CultureGuard @WaxMyBallsShow @FranLa9 @kfurneaux20 @VernThurston @JonYaniv @JNonsense46242

@SurreyRCMP @surreyps @LangleyRCMP @ChrisPentecos @Photosatwork_ @World_Watch_ @LangleyResident @BarbaraDoduk @Cdnwatcher @Istandtoreason @facepalmchris @trustednerd @felixcruggins @CultureGuard @WaxMyBallsShow @FranLa9 @kfurneaux20 @VernThurston @JonYaniv @JNonsense46242 @threadreaderapp unroll @xdownloaderbot download this

Sikorski: In January 2022, Russia made a brief military move into Kazakhstan to interfere in its succession. I believe China told Russia: get out right now, or we'll cut off trade. Russia obeyed.

It can't prosecute this war without trade with China. 1/

Sikorski: China could actually force Russia to end the war. My guess is the war suits China just fine.

Russia sells China gold, and grows more dependent on it every year. What's not to like about that? 2/

Sikorski: Like Weimar Germany, and Tsarist Russia in World War One, Putin's Russia is running out of the resources to keep fighting. I think he probably has enough for another year or so. 3X

As voter rolls are used for Jury duty...Lancaster County, as well as other PA State, county & municipal criminal and civil justice systems will be utterly crippled for years.

It would be legal malpractice for every PA trial attorney involved in a jury trial not to file an immediate appeal based on their being non-citizens on the jury in cases they were involved with.

1/

https://x.com/TrentTelenko/status/2083257277973221722

This will require the PA state county & municipal justice systems to either prove their were not any non-citizens on the trial juries or overturn the criminal and civil verdicts.

We are talking thousands to tens of thousands of cases over since motor voter laws were passed.

2/

And this mass over turning of criminal and civil verdicts due to non-citizens in the jury pools will be true in every state where illegal aliens were included on voter rolls and were called for jury duty.

3/

1/8 Well, it’s the end of the week, and in light of the sociopathic behavior on display for decades, it’s time we sat #fff #effFauciFriday 🧵
Those that are clueless about his deeds, are willfully ignorant because the information is out there. Starting with his experimentation on Foster children, when they refused to take AZT because it made every bone and muscle in their body hurt, he went ahead and had tubes placed in their stomachs so they couldn’t refuse.

youtube.com/watch?v=is6Dtx…

2/8 When scientists wanted to discuss HIV and compare notes, refusing to add their name to a manuscript making a declaration that was never proven, he and his medical mafia destroyed their careers and lives.

3/8 When experimenting on kids wasn’t enough, he decided to do dose ranging studies on pregnant women of AZT derivatives which killed them. (Later he and Birx allegedly bribed the Ugandan government to take this same research there.) aidstruth.org/documents/Harp…

Regressions cannot see what has not happened. Thus, when we extrapolate from a regression, it is important to assess whether the extrapolation captures the likely dynamics outside the historical range of variation in the data.

In the figure, I plot my own reading of the economic theory and empirical evidence. The true relation between TFR and growth three decades later, in blue, increases up to the replacement level, peaks at around 2.1, and then declines as higher TFRs cause problems of fast population growth.

If your only observations are from 1950, when the country with the lowest birth rate, Austria, had a TFR of 2.09 and the rest of the sample had higher birth rates, you will indeed estimate a linear relation (in red) with a negative slope. But extrapolating it to lower levels of TFR will be quite misleading.

Or, as @andreamoro puts it, the local average treatment effect and the empirically relevant treatment effects can be very different when you sample only from a range of the distribution.

If you use birth data from 1980, you still get the same problem.

And logs actually make the problem worse.

REVIEWING BUENOS AIRES TODAY 🇦🇷

Thread with thoughts and comments on Buenos Aires, Argentina. The closest thing to Europe in South America and easily one of the best cities in the Americas - though it still sometimes gets overhyped a little beyond what it actually is

Thread 🧵

Buenos Aires is easily the ‘best’ city in South America, barring perhaps Rio’s ‘Zona Sul’ though not greater Rio de Janeiro itself. Think the most concise way to describe it is as a semi-imitative Madrid with a dash of Paris and then a dash of ‘both those cities if they didn’t have as much money’. In that sense, don’t think Buenos Aires is quite as good as either of those cities but they are some of the best cities in world so they set the bar pretty high. As Latin America goes though, you won’t get better

Sometimes when you’re walking about you could basically be in a Spanish city. I’ve spent a lot of time in Spain and do often get the thought that ‘oh this looks like Valencia, this looks like Bilbao’ etc. Even the taxis are the same colours. I do like this aesthetic - to be clear again before the criticisms start Buenos Aires is a nice city. What Spanish cities have over Buenos Aires I think is in BA while there is some Mediterranean urbanism - ie plazas, outdoor dining, mixed-use streets, lively public spaces etc - it’s not to quite the same degree as in Spain. You could say the overall feel of Buenos Aires is closer sometimes to a slightly more provincial Spanish city than Madrid or Barcelona proper, which I suppose it literally is

Susan Collins, who voted for $70 billion in no-strings-attached ICE funding, is now taking credit for securing a new bodycam commitment to distance herself from Trump and ICE.

Dems will have to go on offense on ICE to thwart this scam.

New piece from me:
newrepublic.com/article/213839…

Here's why I'm worried about Susan Collins taking credit for ICE bodycams: It's gestures like this one that Collins has so often used to great effect to win in Maine despite its Dem lean.

This is the sort of thing she does very well.

(h/t @burgessev)

newrepublic.com/article/213839…

@burgessev Incredibly, some of the local press coverage is already giving Susan Collins credit for getting ICE to commit to bodycams.

If you want to know how Collins wins in this Dem-leaning state, coverage like this is a good place to start.

newrepublic.com/article/213839…

“Oh, what a tangled web we weave . . . .” AG nominee Todd Blanche is snarled deep in a tangled web of his own making, and he and Republicans are covering up the messy tangle. That won’t last. The mess is too thick. The stink is too rank.

🧵

1. Everybody hates both Trump’s crooked slush fund AND the crooked Trump family tax fraud amnesty, so Blanche weaseled a false answer that the slush fund was “DEAD.” But he wouldn’t put in writing. That’s a tell in general, and with lawyers’ weasel words in particular.

2. For instance, all Blanche said was that the Fund was dead and would not be set up. How do you weasel around that? Add one more collusive codicil to the crooked deal, and there’s a brand new vehicle for the $$$. “Hey, I said we wouldn’t use ‘the Fund,’ and we didn’t.”

1/ During our investigation of the Coldcard drain yesterday, we identified an unusual pattern in the sweeps. That pattern led us to a hypothesis that has since been confirmed: the operator used a paid account at a well-known blockchain-services provider to query the source addresses and perform other related activity during the sweeps.

https://x.com/clay_garrett/status/2083007180874379515

2/ We contacted the provider directly. Their internal logs matched the suspected workflow with extraordinary specificity, including the number, timing and sequence of requests. The provider was supplying its standard services in response to requests that did not reveal their broader purpose. We have seen no evidence that the provider knowingly participated in or facilitated the suspected theft.

3/ We are sharing the relevant information with the appropriate authorities. We will provide further updates when doing so will not interfere with the investigation.