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May 20
Zelensky: "Ukraine will 'creatively' expand long-range sanctions on russian territory in June."

🧵 1/14
🔥 Perm refinery completely shut down, - Reuters

The Permneftorgsintez refinery (russia’s 7th largest) has fully stopped operations after repeated Ukrainian drone attacks. Three primary processing units are down, with repairs expected to take weeks.

2/14
🔥 April map reveals 40 Ukrainian strikes deep Into russia

OSINT group Oko Gora recorded 40 Ukrainian drone & missile incursions into russian territory in April alone: 9 oil refineries, 9 military-industrial sites, 7 ports, 6 pumping stations, military facilities, & more.

3/14 Image
Read 14 tweets
May 20
Five years ago, she got COVID.
By November 2021, she came to our clinic with disabling #LongCOVID symptoms.

Today, for the first time in years, she told me she feels closer to her pre-COVID baseline. Closer to herself again. 🧵 Image
There is still no single cure for Long COVID or #MECFS, yet .

But that does not mean there is nothing we can do.

It did not happen overnight.
It took years of listening, adjusting, pacing, setbacks, medication trials, titration, and persistence -from both patient and clinician.
What helped her fatigue, mood and cognition:
• Low-dose naltrexone (LDN) 2 mg
• Aripiprazole 1 mg
• Monthly B12 injections
Read 6 tweets
May 20
This is only the beginning.

He has no plans to leave office or allow free elections. Nor are his plans hidden—they're all unfolding in plain sight.

The Insurrection never ended and the Christofascists won't stop until our democracy is gone.

Choose who you'll be in this moment.
If I had told you a year ago that Marjorie Taylor Greene wouldn't be radical enough for MAGA, nor Lauren Boebert, nor Thomas Massie, nor John Cornyn, nor the senator-doctor who made Kennedy Jr. DHHS chief... if I told you he would be openly stealing our money to fund terrorism...
If I told you he'd be on his fourth war. If I told you he'd be deporting citizens, even killing us in the streets. If I told you he'd demolish the White House. If I told you he'd declare himself the arbiter of when America goes to war. If I told you he'd be an open war profiteer.
Read 6 tweets
May 20
This is the third part of my analysis of Lend-Lease aid to the Soviet Union, covering 1 January 1943 to 1 January 1944, the decisive turning year of the Great Patriotic War. The twelve months opened with the German 6th Army dying at Stalingrad and closed with the Red Army on the Dnieper and Kiev liberated. What follows reviews the front, sets Soviet production against Lend-Lease deliveries, and works out the share each category owed to Western supply.

Part 1:

What was going on the Eastern Front from January 1943 to January 1944?

After January 1943 the strategic initiative passed permanently into Soviet hands, the product of a reorganized command, industry relocated beyond the Urals, hard-won experience, and the endurance of the Soviet soldier.

Winter Offensives, January to March 1943:

Operation Koltso, the final reduction of the Stalingrad pocket, opened on 10 January under Rokossovsky's Don Front. Paulus surrendered on 31 January, Strecker on 2 February. The final phase alone yielded roughly 91,000 prisoners and 24 generals; the full Axis catastrophe ran into several hundred thousand. The myth of German invincibility was finished, won by Soviet arms alone.

Operation Iskra (12 to 30 January):

We saw Govorov's Leningrad Front and Meretskov's Volkhov Front meet south of Lake Ladoga, opening a corridor through which the "Road of Victory" was laid in three weeks, giving the heroic city its first land link since September 1941. To the south, the Ostrogozhsk-Rossosh operation shattered the Hungarian 2nd and remnants of the Italian 8th Armies; Voronezh, Kursk (8 February), Rostov (14 February), and Kharkov (16 February) were liberated.

Manstein's SS Panzer Corps then retook Kharkov on 14 March and Belgorod on 18 March, but the Red Army held its gains; the German recovery left the Kursk salient, a bulge the Germans could not resist attacking.

Spring Pause:

The rasputitsa imposed a halt. Intelligence from "Lucy" and British Ultra warned the Stavka of the coming attack on Kursk. Zhukov and the Stavka chose to absorb the blow on a defense of unprecedented depth, then counterstrike, the calm calculation of a command that now expected to win.

Kursk, July to August 1943:

Citadel opened on 5 July. Model's 9th Army hit Rokossovsky's Central Front in the north; Hoth's 4th Panzer Army and Army Detachment Kempf hit Vatutin's Voronezh Front in the south; Konev's Steppe Front held in reserve. Soviet defenses reached eight belts and 300 km deep, with 1.3 million men. The northern attack was stopped within days; the southern produced the massed armor at Prokhorovka on 12 July. The Germans never broke through.

Operation Kutuzov took Orel on 5 August; Operation Rumyantsev took Belgorod the same day and Kharkov for good on 23 August. That evening, Moscow fired its first victory salute of the war.

Advance to the Dnieper, September to December 1943:

Operation Suvorov liberated Smolensk on 25 September, removing the German springboard pointed at Moscow since 1941. The Donbas operation recovered the coal and steel basin. The Battle of the Dnieper, August to December, was one of the largest operations in military history. Soviet troops forced the river on the move, often on rafts and fishing boats under fire, with many crossers made Heroes of the Soviet Union. Vatutin's 1st Ukrainian Front broke out of the Lyutezh bridgehead and liberated Kiev on 6 November, the eve of the Revolution anniversary. A German counterstroke later that month was contained.

1 January 1944:

Left-bank Ukraine and the Donbas were liberated, firm bridgeheads held on the right bank of the Dnieper, Crimea was being cut off, and the full lifting of the Leningrad blockade was weeks away. The Wehrmacht had been bled white and could mount no strategic offensive again. 1943 was the year the Soviet Union broke the back of the German war machine on land. Industry and supply mattered, but the decisive instrument was the Red Army itself.Image
Part 2:

What the Workers of the USSR Built for the Front.

The Industrial Background:

The production described below cannot be understood without the crisis of 1941. After the German invasion, the USSR lost, or risked losing, territories containing much of its industry, coal, steel, and grain production.

In response, the Soviet state carried out an industrial evacuation unprecedented in history. More than 1,500 major enterprises and over ten million people were relocated by rail to the Urals, Siberia, and Central Asia during late 1941 and 1942. Machinery often operated before factory buildings were finished.

By 1943, this relocated industrial base was fully operational. Despite major regions remaining under occupation, the Soviet Union out-produced Nazi Germany in tanks, artillery, and combat aircraft. The figures below show what a centrally planned wartime economy, powered by women, teenagers, and older workers, achieved.

A Note on Precision:

Large wartime production figures always contain uncertainty. Soviet-era statistics, post-Soviet archives, and Western estimates differ depending on what is counted, including variants, repairs, naval guns, and training aircraft.

The figures below are the best consolidated estimates available. Where uncertainty is significant, ranges are provided.

Soviet Domestic Production, 1943
Armored Fighting Vehicles
Total tanks and self-propelled guns: about 24,000 to 24,100.

T-34 (76 mm): roughly 15,500 to 15,800.

T-70 light tank: about 3,300.

KV-series heavy tanks: several hundred to around 1,000 as production shifted toward the IS series and KV-85.

Self-propelled guns: roughly 4,000 to 4,400, including the SU-76, SU-122, SU-85, and SU-152, noted for destroying Tiger and Panther tanks.

Aircraft:

Total aircraft: about 34,900, including roughly 29,900 combat aircraft.

Around 11,000 Ilyushin Il-2 Shturmoviks were built in 1943 alone.

Fighter production centered on the Yakovlev series and Lavochkin La-5.
Bomber production focused mainly on the Petlyakov Pe-2.

Artillery and Mortars:

Total guns and mortars: about 130,000.

Mortars accounted for roughly 68,000 to 70,000.

Barrelled artillery included field, anti-tank, tank, self-propelled, anti-aircraft, and naval guns.

The 76 mm ZiS-3 divisional gun was produced in the tens of thousands.

Small Arms:

Rifles and carbines: roughly 3.4 to 4 million.

Submachine guns: about 2 million, overwhelmingly PPSh-41s.

Machine guns: roughly 450,000 to 460,000.

Ammunition:

Soviet factories produced well over 150 million artillery and mortar rounds in 1943, plus billions of small-arms cartridges. Ammunition supply, a major weakness in 1941, had become dependable.

Motor Vehicles:

Motor vehicle production was the major exception.

The USSR produced only about 45,000 to 50,000 trucks and cars in 1943 because major plants such as GAZ and ZIS were diverted toward weapons production, while Gorky also suffered heavy German air raids.

Soviet leadership judged that factory capacity was better spent on tanks and shells because trucks could be supplied by the Western Allies.

Locomotives and Rolling Stock:

Production of new locomotives and freight cars was largely suspended as rail factories were converted to armament production.

Across the entire war, the USSR built only a few dozen new mainline locomotives. Existing stock was maintained through repairs. As with trucks, Soviet planners expected rail equipment to come through Lend-Lease.

In 1943, the Soviet Union produced roughly 24,000 armored vehicles, 35,000 aircraft, 130,000 guns and mortars, and millions of small arms, out-producing Germany in the core weapons of land warfare.

At the same time, it deliberately neglected motor transport and railway equipment, expecting these to come from the Western Allies. The Red Army’s firepower was overwhelmingly Soviet-built, while much of its transport and rail support came from Allied industry.
Part 3:

Lend-Lease Deliveries to the Soviet Union:

Aid to the USSR was governed by a series of agreements known as Protocols. The First Protocol covered roughly October 1941 to June 1942; the Second covered July 1942 to June 1943; the Third covered July 1943 to June 1944; the Fourth ran from July 1944 to the end. The year 1943 therefore straddles the Second and Third Protocols.

The Delivery Routes:

The Pacific route ran from the American west coast to Soviet Far Eastern ports, principally Vladivostok, carried in Soviet-flagged ships because the Soviet Union and Japan were not at war. This route carried roughly half of all tonnage, but by agreement only non-military cargo: food, fuel, raw materials, vehicles, and industrial goods.

The Persian Corridor ran through the Persian Gulf and across Iran by rail and by truck convoy. This route was developed intensively during 1943, with American engineer and transport units expanding the Iranian railway and road capacity. It became a major artery precisely in the year under study.

The Arctic convoys ran to Murmansk and Arkhangelsk. They were the shortest route and the most dangerous, exposed to German aircraft, submarines, and surface raiders from occupied Norway. Heavy losses led to suspensions of the convoy cycle during 1943, which reduced what this route delivered that year.

The Alaska-Siberia air ferry route (ALSIB) was used to fly aircraft from the United States through Alaska and across Siberia into Soviet service.

A Note on Precision:

Lend-Lease figures vary between sources because of differences between goods dispatched, goods that arrived, and goods lost at sea, and because of calendar-year versus Protocol-year accounting. Whole-war totals are reasonably firm; single-year breakdowns are estimates. The figures below are presented with that caveat, and ranges are given where appropriate.

Deliveries During 1943:

The year 1943 was the first big year of the program. Deliveries in 1941 had been small, and 1942 deliveries, though larger, were still hampered by shipping shortages and Arctic convoy losses. In 1943 the Persian Corridor matured and the Pacific route ran heavily, and total tonnage to the USSR rose to roughly 4 to 5 million tons for the calendar year, a large jump over 1942.

Best estimates for headline categories delivered during calendar 1943:

Motor vehicles: well over 100,000, and by some accounts approaching 150,000, making 1943 a major year for vehicle supply even before the 1944 peak.

Aircraft: on the order of 5,000.
Tanks and armored vehicles: on the order of 3,000.

Food, petroleum products, metals, explosives, and signal equipment: delivered in large and rising quantities, with the bulk of the program's wartime impact in these categories falling across 1943 and 1944.

In 1943 the Western Allies delivered to the USSR roughly 4 to 5 million tons of cargo, including well over 100,000 motor vehicles, around 5,000 aircraft, around 3,000 armored vehicles, and large tonnages of fuel, food, metals, explosives, and communications equipment.
Read 5 tweets
May 20
It feels like we're edging closer to some big reveal. Were being served hors d'oeuvres of "declass" Executive Orders & UAP Congressional hearings, w/ Spielberg's "Disclosure Day" coming this summer.

Given this I went back and read "Roadside Picnic". Highly recommend.
(🧵1 of 3)
"My Lord, what else has to be done to us for it finally to get thru to people? Is this really not enough? He knew it wasn't enough. Billions and billions didn't know a thing and if they found out they'd act horrified for a bit and then forget all about it."
😗👌
(🧵2 of 3)
Many good themes in this short 1970s book (transhumanism, 'the soul', etc) I found the authors cuz their writing is credited for creating a new kinda strategy w/ World Leaders👇

(🧵3of3)
Full audiobook here
archive.org/details/roadsi…
x.com/s7ephen/status…
x.com/s7ephen/status…
Read 3 tweets
May 19
REPORT: Across America, farmers are reporting scenes straight out of a nightmare, mysterious boxes of ticks appearing on rural properties while infestations explode at levels many say they’ve never witnessed before.

Now those reports are colliding with documented Bill Gates-funded research into genetically modified ticks, growing fears over Alpha-Gal Syndrome, and scientific papers openly arguing it could be “morally good” to spread meat allergies through engineered tick populations.

Social media is flooding with horrifying footage of animals overwhelmed by massive tick swarms while officials wave the crisis away as “climate change.” Meanwhile, more than 450,000 Americans are already suffering from Alpha-Gal Syndrome after tick bites, a condition with no cure that can trigger severe allergic reactions to red meat.

Even more alarming, Russian biologists are now warning about so-called “mutant ticks” reportedly resistant to conventional methods and behaving far more aggressively toward humans and animals.

So why is nobody in authority seriously investigating the reports, the research, or where these infestations may really be coming from?

@zeeemedia's new report uncovers the disturbing connections raising alarm bells across rural America.
There are two financial systems—one for the connected, and one for everyone else.

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Now, that advantage can be yours.

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Meanwhile, young Americans are openly revolting against the billionaire-led AI agenda.

At graduation ceremonies across the country, students are now booing the people telling them “the AI revolution” will reshape society, while quietly threatening the careers they spent years and thousands of dollars preparing for.

In back-to-back commencement speeches, executives took the stage expecting applause for their vision of an AI-dominated future. Instead, they were met with visible disgust from young people completely fed up with the tech elites already reshaping modern life around surveillance, automation, and dependency.

These students don’t sound inspired anymore. They sound betrayed.

See the moment the crowd turns on the AI sales pitch in @zeeemedia's explosive report.
Read 7 tweets
May 19
I have possession of the 75 page manifesto of the San Diego Islamic Center attack.
Turn notifications ON. He blames everything on the Jews. Image
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The attackers were NOT Trans and they blame Jewish people for everything Image
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They hated women, they were incels. Image
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Read 9 tweets
May 19
@Bless_ThisMess7 He flunks the class
@Bless_ThisMess7 Or if he wants to pass he mows some lawns to earn money to pay for it
@Bless_ThisMess7 And to be candid sometimes these consequences hurt us as parents more than them as kids in the moment. But overtime it fundamentally realigns you to their growth, rebuilds harmony, and teaches them better lasting lessons.
Read 3 tweets
May 19
NEW: The regime change plan at the beginning of the Iran War called for installing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's former hard line president known for accelerating the nuclear program and denying the Holocaust, as the country's new. leader.nytimes.com/2026/05/19/us/…
An Israeli strike at the beginning of the war was meant to spring Ahmadinejad from house arrest. Instead, he was injured in the strike and became disillusioned with the regime change plan.
For all you kids out there, Ahmadinejad was somebody once:
Read 3 tweets
May 19
Here’s how to identify when a deal is too risky:

Sometimes the deals you don’t do are more important than the deals you do

This 40-unit deal that I underwrote a while ago had 4 major deal breakers: Image
1. Having to take on short-term bridge debt
2. Having to execute on a full-scale renovation (40 units) during a short time span
3. Your stabilized yield is only 58 basis points above the market cap rate
4. Your stabilized DSCR is only 1.06
1. Having to take on short-term bridge debt

A negative in-place NOI means that banks aren’t going to lend on the deal (they usually need at least a 1.25x DSCR to lend). That leaves you with the options of doing the deal all cash or taking on bridge debt. Since most people don’t have $4MM lying around, that means bridge debt

Not only does bridge debt come with a higher interest rate (likely 10-12% right now), but it comes with a shorter time-frame (usually 12-24 months, rather than a 5-year timeframe for standard bank debt)

This may seem insignificant but it’s actually the single biggest risk you can take on in a deal

- Debt is the #1 reason RE investors go under
- The more highly levered you are, the more likely you are to go under (bridge debt is usually highly levered)
- You have less than half the time you’d normally have to execute your business plan before needing to sell, refi, or recap. Massive difference

This single item alone significantly elevates the risk profile of the deal. You need to demand a healthy return for any deal that requires bridge debt
Read 7 tweets
May 19
The BARE MINIMUM you do to a criminal defense lawyer who signs a non-prosecution agreement with HIS OWN CLIENT is disbar him.

But that is insufficient for Todd Blanche, who took an OFFICIAL ACTION as acting AG as part of a BRIBE to hold his job permanently.

He must be indicted. Image
It gets worse. This breaking news confirms Blanche knew Trump had no case against the IRS when he gave his client $1.8B in taxpayer cash and promised never to prosecute him. Blanche will now become permanent AG. This is a criminal bribe—a TEXTBOOK example. thedailybeast.com/trumps-18b-slu…
To put a finer point on this: the Attorney General of the United States is a felon. Not a minor thug, but a felon who committed one of the most serious offenses identified in the text of our Constitution...in broad daylight.

This wasn't bad judgment; it's worthy of imprisonment.
Read 5 tweets
May 19
Zoning adds $300 - 500k to the price of a home in cities with good jobs. High-speed rail takes 30 years to build. New drugs cost $2B. We pay 5-10x what peer countries do for the same infrastructure.

People call this "regulation." It isn't, exactly. It's stranger and worse. 🧵
Concrete example: NYC's Second Avenue Subway Phase 1 cost $2.5 billion per mile. That's 8-12x more than comparable subway projects in Italy, Spain, Sweden, Korea, or Turkey
When NEPA passed in 1969 it was about 5 pages.

It required federal agencies to write an "environmental impact statement" before major actions.

Today the average EIS runs over 600 pages and takes 4.5 years. Major projects: 7+ years.
Read 15 tweets

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